lmes. no doubt you are right,

and it is unreasonable for us to expect you to act unless we give

you our entire confidence."

"i agree with you, sir," said the younger statesman.

"then i will tell you, relying entirely upon your honour and that

of your colleague, dr. watson. i may appeal to your patriotism

also, for i could not imagine a greater misfortune for the country

than that this affair should come out."

"you may safely trust us."

"the letter, then, is from a certain foreign potentate who has

been ruffled by some recent colonial developments of this country.

it has been written hurriedly and upon his own responsibility

entirely. inquiries have shown that his ministers know nothing of

the matter. at the same time it is couched in so unfortunate a

manner, and certain phrases in it are of so provocative a

character, that its publication would undoubtedly lead to a most

dangerous state of feeling in this country. there would be such a

ferment, sir, that i do not hesitate to say that within a week of

the publication of that letter this country would be involved in a

great war."

holmes wrote a name upon a slip of paper and handed it to the

premier.

"exactly. it was he. and it is this letter -- this letter which

may well mean the expenditure of a thousand millions and the lives

of a hundred thousand men -- which has become lost in this

unaccountable fashion."

"have you informed the sender?"

"yes, sir, a cipher telegram has been dispatched."

"perhaps he desires the publication of the letter."

"no, sir, we have strong reason to believe that he already

understands that he has acted in an indiscreet and hot-headed

manner. it would be a greater blow to him and to his country than

to us if this letter were to come out."

"if this is so, whose interest is it that the letter should come

out? why should anyone desire to steal it or to publish it?"

"there, mr. holmes, you take me into regions of high international

politics. but if you consider the european situation you will

have no difficulty in perceiving the motive. the whole of europe

is an armed camp. there is a double league which makes a fair

balance of military power. great britain holds the scales. if

britain were driven into war with one confederacy, it would assure

the supremacy of the other confederacy, whether they joined in the

war or not. do you follow?"

"very clearly. it is then the interest of the enemies of this

potentate to secure and publish this letter, so as to make a

breach between his country and ours?"

"yes, sir."

"and to whom would this document be sent if it fell into the hands

of an enemy?"

"to any of the great chancelleries of europe. it is probably

speeding on its way thither at the present instant as fast as

steam can take it."

mr. trelawney hope dropped his head on his chest and groaned

aloud. the premier placed his hand kindly upon his shoulder.

"it is your misfortune, my dear fellow. no one can blame you.

there is no precaution which you have neglected. now, mr. holmes,

you are in full possession of the facts. what course do you

recommend?"

holmes shook his head mournfully.

"you think, sir, that unless this document is recovered there will

be war?"

"i think it is very probable."

"then, sir, prepare for war."

"that is a hard saying, mr. holmes."

"consider the facts, sir. it is inconceivable that it was taken

after eleven-thirty at night, since i understand that mr. hope and

his wife were both in the room from that hour until the loss was

found out. it was taken, then, yesterday evening between

seven-thirty and eleven-thirty, probably near the earlier hour,

since whoever took it evidently knew that it was there, and would

naturally secure it as early as possible. now, sir, if a document

of this importance were taken at that hour, where can it be now?

no one has any reason to retain it. it has been passed rapidly on

to those who need it. what chance have we now to overtake or even

to trace it? it is beyond our reach."

the prime minister rose from the settee.

"what you say is perfectly logical, mr. holmes. i feel that the

matter is indeed out of our hands."

"let us presume, for argument's sake, that the document was taken

by the maid or by the valet ----"

"they are both old and tried servants."

"i understand you to say that your room is on the second floor,

that there is no entrance from without, and that from within no

one could go up unobserved. it must, then, be somebody in the

house who has taken it. to whom would the thief take it? to one

of several international spies and secret agents, whose names are

tolerably familiar to me. there are three who may be said to be

the heads of their profession. i will begin my research by going

round and finding if each of them is at his post. if one is

missing